The gold market was very quiet on Friday as one would expect, because most traders are focusing on the holidays and not sitting at the terminals.
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You can see that gold was pretty cut on Friday. I was nowhere really. No big surprise. On the last day of the year, why would you expect anyone to throw a lot of money into the market? So, with that, I think you have to look at the market through the prism of the long term.
And it’s clear to me that buyers have been in control for some time. With that being the case, I expect any pullback at this point to be a potential value opportunity that people will take advantage of. Certainly, 2050 is an area that I think many people see as a possible destination in the short term.
But I believe the real floor in the market is below the $2,000 level. The 50-day EMA sits there. Of course, this is a signal that many people pay attention to, which adds to the fact that the $2,000 level is such a big, round number that will attract a lot of attention. I think as long as we’re there, the market will be pretty strong.
Falling interest rates in the United States should continue to support gold. That being said, the first week of January can be a bit strange as traders are just getting back to work. We get the job numbers in the second week of January, so I guess that’s when most liquidity will return to the market. Regardless, the negative correlation with interest rates in the US will dominate the movement in this market.
If rates fall in the United States, we should try to challenge the large wick from the December 4 candlestick. Not that it’s going to be a quick move, but it’s something I fully expect to see this year.
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